In recent days the equity market has appeared to take fright at a change in the difference between the yield on US long-term interest rates and the yield on short-term US interest rates otherwise known as the ‘yield curve’. There are a couple of popular ways of measuring the US yield curve. The first one is the difference between US 2 year bond yields minus US 10 year bond yields. The second is the difference between US 90 day treasury bill yields minus US 10 year bond yields.
It is widely said that when either of these differences in interest rates or measures of the yield curve falls below zero, then that movement forecasts a coming US recession.
Read more in Morgans monthly Investment Watch Update.
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